The Assets

Market Intelligence 20

Romain Braud -
  • Continued positive sentiment in the Crypto & BTC market this week
  • BTC flips key resistance level of $45k to support
  • BTC has outperformed all major asset classes since US interest rate hike
  • The majority of BTC supply is held by high-conviction investors

Weekly Price Action

  • BTC is trading at $45'814 (+ 4.2% in 6 days) at the time of writing
  • Price spiked by 5.5% and broke out of the $45k resistance level its ranged within throughout 2022
  • Price reached a yearly high of $48k before trading sideways at the $47k level and retracing back to the $45k level
  • Upward momentum still exists however the resistance at $48k needs to be broken to start a significant uptrend

Positive Sentiment in the Crypto Market

The sentiment continues to be positive in the Crypto Space this week:

  • Goldman Sachs traded an OTC non-deliverable BTC option as principal with Galaxy Digital
  • The Luna foundation Guard announced plans to back Terra's stablecoin (UST) with BTC worth up to $3bn to make the US dollar peg more resilient

Bitcoin vs Traditional Assets since 0.25% rate hike

  • Bitcoin has outperformed the Nasdaq and the SP-500 since the 0.25% increase in US interest rates two weeks ago
  • Bitcoin and US equities have outperformed Gold and US bonds during the same period
  • Safe-haven assets have picked up in the last week whilst US equities dropped and Bitcoin traded sideways

Price Structure for 2022

  • BTC has finally broken above the $35k-$45k range it has been trading within in 2022
  • The resistance level of $44k-$45k has flipped to support
  • Price has fallen back and can be supported at the breakout level of $45k in the short-term which could represent a medium-term entry opportunity

Constructive Support level at $38k-$45k

Entity-Adjusted Unspent Realized Price Distribution

  • This metric illustrates the realized price distribution of the current supply of BTC, divided between long-term holders (LTHs) in blue and short-term holders (STHs) in red
  • More simply, it illustrates the volume at which all Bitcoins have last been purchased for all price-levels

LTHs:

  • LTHs hold a large proportion of supply acquired at prices higher than $45k
  • These coins have been held at unrealized loss for several months
  • The investors holding these coins have strong sentiment as they have yet to liquidate

STHs:

  • STHs have accumulated a large portion of supply between $38k & $45k
  • This supply is a value zone as it is held at an unrealized gain
  • This range is similar to the $30k-$40k range observed in May-July 2021, a period that preceded an uptrend to a new all-time high

Only 'Hodlers' remain

Realized Cap HODL Waves (Coins younger than 1-month)

  • This metric bundles all active supply age bands younger than 1 month, with each colored band showing the percentage of Bitcoin in existence that was last moved within the time period denoted in the legend, weighted by realised capitalization
  • 16.23% of the total USD value of BTC is held in coins younger than 1 month, which signals an abundance of 'older coins'

This is a sign of market strength for the following reasons:

  • The majority of the supply of BTC has been held despite the recent volatile price swings, signalling high investor conviction and future value expectations
  • The liquid supply of BTC has continued to decline
  • This level has historically coincided with late stage bear / early bull markets (2012,2016 & 2019-20)